The Market Is Talking & Here’s What It’s Saying
5 Bold Predictions, 6 Months Later (Spoiler: Some aged better than others.)
Each month, I aim to give you everything you actually need to know about real estate: original, no-fluff insights you won’t find on Google or the Wall Street Journal. Something you can read, make sense of, and maybe even share with a friend.
And look, I know most people aren’t moving this year… or next… or maybe not for another 5 to 10 years.
So it’s fair to ask: Why should I care about real estate if I’m not planning to move?
Here’s the simple answer: The housing market, both locally and nationally, is one of the clearest reflections of the broader economy. Home sales, prices, and buyer behavior track closely with trends like job growth, consumer confidence, interest rates, and even the stock market. In short, it matters more than most people realize.
Now that we’ve officially crossed the halfway mark of 2025, it’s a great time to revisit the “5 bold predictions” I made back in January. Let’s take a look at what held up, what didn’t, and what it all means for the road ahead.
Prediction #1: Pent-Up Demand Will Jump Back Into the Market
I expected home sales to bounce back after hovering at 1995 levels for the past two years. The U.S. population has grown by 70 million people since then, which means a lot of would-be buyers sitting on the sidelines.
Result: Still waiting.
Sales ticked up slightly in May to an annual pace of 4.03 million, up 0.8% from April, but still below 2024’s numbers. So far, the floodgates haven’t opened. But I’m still optimistic for a stronger fall season.
Prediction #2: Interest Rates Will Finally Ease
This one felt like a pretty safe bet, with inflation cooling and rate cuts on the table late last year.
Result: Technically yes, but barely.
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate inched down from around 6.85% in January to 6.77% in June. It’s a move in the right direction, just not the rate relief buyers were hoping for.
Prediction #3: Home Prices Will Rise
Lower rates, even slightly, usually translate to more demand. And more demand tends to push prices up.
Result: Mostly true.
The Case-Shiller Index rose 1.8% from January to April. But the pace of annual appreciation has slowed, from 4.1% to 2.7%. So while prices are still climbing, they’re doing so a bit more cautiously.
Prediction #4: Total Cost of Ownership Will Create Pressure
I flagged rising insurance costs and fixed-income constraints as sneaky affordability threats, especially in areas prone to weather events or aging infrastructure.
Result: Yep.
Homeowners insurance premiums rose 17% to 21% in the first half of 2025. For multifamily properties, premiums are up nearly 45% year-over-year. Price and interest rate used to dominate the conversation, but now buyers are thinking about the total monthly cost more than ever.
Prediction #5: Renting Will Gain Even More Traction
For many would-be buyers, especially younger households, renting has become the more viable option while prices and rates remain high.
Result: Absolutely.
Single-family rents are up 2.8% year-over-year nationally. In the suburbs, it’s even more dramatic, with growth up to 18% compared to just 8% in cities. Homeownership remains the goal for many, but the path has never been more complex. For now, renting is the more realistic choice for a lot of folks.
So, what’s next? Here’s what I see coming in the second half of 2025:
1. The fall market will be the busiest we’ve seen since 2021. Rates are down just enough. Inventory is up just enough. A lot of people who’ve been sitting on the sidelines may finally decide it’s time. I expect a strong September through November, especially among serious buyers and sellers who skipped spring.
2. Cash buyers and investors will make a comeback. In a market where speed and certainty matter more than ever, cash is king. I’m already seeing more investor activity, and I think we’re just getting started.
The truth is, this market isn’t easy to generalize. Every neighborhood, price point, and situation is different. So if you’ve been wondering whether it’s the right time, let’s talk through it.
Because when the market’s moving like this, strategy matters more than ever.
XO - Gee
