March Is the Decision Month
Why the Spring Market Starts Earlier Than Most People Think
Ah, the spring market. The season when more homes change hands than at any other time of year. At least, that is the conventional wisdom from what most people would call “normal” housing markets. Markets we honestly have not seen since around 2019 back when people were choosing homes based on commute times instead of Zoom backgrounds.
So where does that leave us in March of 2026, standing right on the edge of another spring market? Headlines will keep doing what headlines do. But here is what I can tell you with confidence as we try to make sense of this year.
For the past three years, the housing market has been defined by hesitation. Since 2022, we have lived through one of the fastest interest rate shocks in modern history. Mortgage rates doubled in a matter of months and briefly pushed toward 8 percent after sitting near historic lows. That part is old news. But the impact is still shaping today’s market.
Higher rates changed affordability almost overnight. Just as important, the speed and unpredictability of those moves shook buyer and seller confidence in a big way. And when confidence gets shaken, people wait.
Over the past few years, both buyers and sellers have been cautious. The market has been stuck in a quiet stalemate of “wait and see.” Even when people did not say it out loud, the underlying question was usually the same: “Are we ever going back to 3 percent mortgage rates, or were they truly a once in a generation anomaly?”
But something important is starting to change in 2026. And that is why March matters.
The Market Is Not Booming. It’s Stabilizing.
Markets do not actually need low interest rates to function, what they need is stability.
Mortgage rates recently dipped below 6 percent for the first time since 2022. That does not mean we are returning to the pandemic era but it does signal that the wild swings and overcorrections of the past few years may finally be calming down.
We are already seeing the response. Mortgage activity has picked up modestly in early 2026. A lot of that movement is coming from refinancing, which tells us something important. Homeowners are starting to believe the rate environment is becoming more predictable.
On the buyer side, purchase demand is still softer than the frenzy years, but it is higher than it was a year ago. In fact, we are now seeing the third straight year of gradual improvement.
In other words, the market is no longer reacting to headlines but instead adjusting to reality.
After three years of waiting, and honestly a little grieving for those ultra low pandemic rates, buyers are beginning to accept that today’s rates may simply be the new normal. And that shift matters far more than the exact rate number.
The Lock In Effect Is Finally Starting to Loosen
Homeowners with 3 percent mortgages have been understandably hesitant to move. That has been one of the biggest contributors to the inventory shortage we have seen over the past few years. And it has not been a small imbalance.
The U.S. housing market has been operating millions of homes short of what economists consider a healthy level of supply. Active listings have stayed well below typical market conditions but that stalemate is slowly starting to loosen.
Inventory is beginning to rise in many markets as sellers who waited for pandemic era rates are starting to accept that those conditions may not return anytime soon.
At the same time, buyers who have been sitting on the sidelines for years are getting tired of waiting.
More listings, more choices and more participation. A market that feels more balanced.
Not booming or crashing just… normal. And normal is exactly what brings people back into the market.
So What About March and the Spring Market?
Here is the part most people miss. The spring market does not start when homes hit the market in April or May but starts when people decide to move. And that decision window is happening right now.
March is when sellers stop casually thinking about listing and start actively preparing for it. Contractors get scheduled, stagers get booked, photographers start filling their calendars and pricing conversations shift from hypothetical to real. It is also when buyers move from casually scrolling online to actually touring homes.
In other words, the momentum that defines the spring market begins building in March, even if the visible surge in listings and sales shows up a few weeks later.
By the time the data shows a busy market, the decisions that created it have already been made.
My Honest (and Grounded) Take
For the past few years, hesitation has been the biggest barrier to buying and selling and honestly, I understand why.
When rates were jumping around, affordability was changing month to month, and headlines were all over the place, waiting to see how things played out felt like the responsible move. In many cases, the safest decision felt like making no decision at all.
But here is where we are today. The market is not waiting for perfect conditions anymore. Buyers and sellers are adjusting and moving forward as stability begins to return. Everyone would love a crystal ball that tells us exactly where rates, prices, and inventory are headed. But in real life, clarity rarely shows up all at once.
It shows up gradually through steadier mortgage rates, slowly rising inventory, and through buyers and sellers quietly re entering the market. That is exactly what we are seeing right now.
And here is the part most people do not realize. Waiting for the market to feel “safe” usually means entering at the same time as everyone else. And when that happens, competition rises, flexibility disappears, and options shrink. In other words, waiting for certainty often comes with a cost.
If you have been on the fence, not because the move doesn’t make sense but because the environment has felt uncertain, March may be the first time in a few years where the market is offering something it has not had in a while: stability.
Stability does not make headlines but it is what smart decisions are built on.
If you want to talk through what this might mean for your specific situation, now is a great time to connect and start building a plan.
XO - Gee
