The Market Has Finally Settled...
And honestly? That’s a good thing.
For almost three years now, the housing market has felt like one giant group text where everyone keeps saying the same thing: “Let’s just wait and see what happens.” Uncertainty. Predictions. Plot twists. Repeat.
Well… we’ve waited. And we’ve seen. And now that the dust has settled, the picture is actually a lot clearer than it’s been in a long time.
Interest Rates: A return to normal (even if it doesn’t feel normal)
The Fed has now cut rates twice this year, and instead of the rollercoaster we lived through from 2020–2023, we’re finally seeing steady, predictable movement again.
Mortgage rates aren’t dropping back to 2–3% (and they’re not supposed to). Instead, they’ve landed in the 5–7% range which is historically normal and financially sustainable.
But I totally get why it feels “high.” For the last 15+ years, every time rates started to inch up, something major knocked them back down: a recession, a pandemic, global uncertainty, you name it. We got used to cheap money.
Those ultra-low rates were never the norm… they were the anomaly. Today’s market is simply a return to economic gravity.
A slow market that still isn’t acting like one
Here’s the weird part: 2025 is still a really slow year for home sales. Fewer people are listing. Fewer people are moving. It’s the third year in a row of lower-than-normal activity.
On paper, this should be the perfect recipe for a price correction. Higher rates + fewer buyers + slower activity = falling prices… right?
Except that’s not what’s happening. Prices are still inching upward even with all the slowdown.
Why prices haven’t budged
Prices fall when people are forced to sell. Whether that be distressed sales, job losses, foreclosures, short sales, the whole 2008 domino effect.
Right now? We’re nowhere near that environment.
Nearly half of homeowners have over 50% equity
There’s $18 trillion in home equity nationwide
Foreclosures make up about 1 in every 4,000 sales (historically low)
The job market is strong
Most sellers today are moving because they want to, not because they have to. And when there’s no wave of distressed properties cutting down comps, home values stay steady.
So where does that leave us?
Here’s the honest truth:
Rates are settling into the 5–7% range for the foreseeable future. We’re done with the whiplash. No more giant spikes or sudden drops.
There’s no data showing home prices are heading down. Could some markets soften seasonally? Sure. But a nationwide decline? There’s nothing pointing to that.
If you’re a buyer: The “wait and see” phase is over and waiting now just means paying more later. The ultra-low pandemic rates aren’t coming back, and stable markets actually give buyers more negotiating power than the chaos years ever did.
If you’re a seller: Perspective is everything. Home values doubled in the seven years before COVID… and in many places, doubled again during COVID. Historically, homes take about 24 years to double.
We’re heading back to a normal, healthy pace. Not declining, just stabilizing. And that’s a good thing.
My big-picture take (and what I’m telling my clients)
We’re entering a housing market that looks a lot like the one that built long-term wealth for the American middle class:
Moderate interest rates
Steady, predictable appreciation
Buyers and sellers making decisions based on life changes, not panic
A market where patience actually pays off
And if you’re a first-time buyer, please don’t write yourself off. It’s never been easy to buy your first home. But time in the market still beats trying to time the market every single year.
After three years of uncertainty, we finally have direction again. And this time? It’s a rhythm everyone can move with.
XO - Gee
